Don't Expect R.A. Dickey To Repeat 2010 Success

R.A. Dickey, the pitcher who went 11-9 last season with a 2.84 ERA, which was good for seventh best among National League pitchers, is struggling.

So far in 2011, he is 1-5 with a 5.08 ERA, and he can't seem to get by anymore with his trademark pitch, the knuckleball.

When your bread and butter pitch is a knuckler and it is no longer knuckling, or whatever it's supposed to do, you're going to run into trouble, which Dickey has.

This season, Dickey has had to rely on his fastball more, roughly five percent more.

What should also be noted about his struggles on the mound is that the average range in velocity is much less this season than it was in 2010.

fangraphs.com

When a pitcher uses the same pitch nearly 80 percent of the time, a batter tends to learn what to expect at the plate. It was Dickey's ability to throw that knuckleball anywhere between 53 miles per hour and 83 miles per hour in 2010, however, that made him so dominant. 

As the chart shows, in 2011, his range in velocity this season is less, possibly making his knuckleball slightly more predictable for batters.

In yesterday's loss to the Astros, Dickey went to conventional pitches to get him by when the knuckleball failed him. When your fastball averages just 83 MPH though, it's only a matter of time before you get lit up by opposing batters.

Do I expect to see the same pitcher who dominated with his knuckleball and sent batters flailing about at the plate like he did in 2010? No.

He was the feel-good story of 2010. Feel-good stories don't tend to last forever though.

That doesn't mean I don't expect, or at least hope, that he will find success of some kind once again and finish the season strong.